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Are the Markets Setting Up for a Santa Claus Rally?
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Key Takeaways
Markets Rose on Calm Inflation Rate Yesterday
Still Off Yearly Highs, Are We Positioned for a Santa Claus Rally?
Following Earnings Reports from NKE and FDX Yesterday, WGO, LW and CAG Report This Morning
Friday, December 19, 2025
Pre-market futures are fighting to stay in the green this morning, tacking toward flat levels for much of the early morning trading. Major indexes closed higher Thursday, partly due to relief on the latest Inflation Rate from that morning’s CPI report, which showed a -40 basis-point (bps) decline from expectations, month over month. It was the first decline in the Inflation Rate of any kind since the early part of this year, although some question the data put out yesterday.
This includes important line items such as Owners Equivalent Rent, which for October — for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not provide a full report due to the federal government shutdown — assumed a big, fat zero. This is clearly something that ought to be revised in subsequent CPI reports, which may wind up erasing the +2.7% Inflation Rate headline for November. That said, this is only one of many, many moving parts within this data. Who knows where it might ultimately shake out?
Investors appear keen to find some near-term equilibrium this morning: the Dow is -7 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +6, the Nasdaq +56 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 is also +6 points. It is also Quadruple Witching day on this final trading day of the last full trading week of 2025, where futures and options for both indexes and stocks all expire today. This may cause additional jostling for position ahead of the expirations, meaning another impetus for volatility.
Setting Up for Santa Claus Rally?
While we did see indexes in the green Thursday, they are down across the board over the past week of trading. Concerns about AI infrastructure spending from present levels are apparent, as evident by the tech-heavy proving the laggard over the past month of trading. We’re off late October highs for the year, but have buoyed back from the pre-Thanksgiving lows (that was quite a month!).
As we know, a “Santa Claus Rally” does not occur throughout the holiday, but in the waning trading days of the calendar year. Often it is a way to correct for earlier-year trading discrepancies, and even more often it’s a means of looking forward into opportunities for the new year. In any case, with that equilibrium from market participants still being sought this morning, it appears the major indexes are currently in a sweet spot for a Santa Claus Rally to occur.
Earnings Roundup Ahead of the Open
Yesterday afternoon, we saw both Nike (NKE - Free Report) and FedEx (FDX - Free Report) outperform expectations on both top and bottom lines, but trade down in the early market today. Nike cited weakness in China and a “significant” tariff headwind, which helped take the stock down -10% from an already-low -13% drop year to date. FedEx, which also tightened guidance for its full year, is selling off -3% after gaining +24% over the past six months.
This morning, Winnebago (WGO - Free Report) posted a big surprise on both earnings and sales, with $0.38 per share amounting to a +216% positive earnings surprise on $702.7 million in revenues, +11.3% higher than the Zacks consensus. Shares have now flipped into positive territory for the year, +16% this morning versus -15% from early January til yesterday’s close. For more on WGO’s earnings, click here.
Meanwhile, french fry giant Lamb Weston (LW - Free Report) beat earnings estimates by 2 cents per share in its fiscal Q2 report this morning, but flat sales in North America and a murky picture due to its International acquisitions have brought shares -15% lower ahead of the bell. Conagra (CAG - Free Report) which beat by a penny to 45 cents per share this morning, is down marginally after shedding -35% year to date.
Image: Bigstock
Are the Markets Setting Up for a Santa Claus Rally?
Key Takeaways
Friday, December 19, 2025
Pre-market futures are fighting to stay in the green this morning, tacking toward flat levels for much of the early morning trading. Major indexes closed higher Thursday, partly due to relief on the latest Inflation Rate from that morning’s CPI report, which showed a -40 basis-point (bps) decline from expectations, month over month. It was the first decline in the Inflation Rate of any kind since the early part of this year, although some question the data put out yesterday.
This includes important line items such as Owners Equivalent Rent, which for October — for which the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) did not provide a full report due to the federal government shutdown — assumed a big, fat zero. This is clearly something that ought to be revised in subsequent CPI reports, which may wind up erasing the +2.7% Inflation Rate headline for November. That said, this is only one of many, many moving parts within this data. Who knows where it might ultimately shake out?
Investors appear keen to find some near-term equilibrium this morning: the Dow is -7 points at this hour, the S&P 500 is +6, the Nasdaq +56 points and the small-cap Russell 2000 is also +6 points. It is also Quadruple Witching day on this final trading day of the last full trading week of 2025, where futures and options for both indexes and stocks all expire today. This may cause additional jostling for position ahead of the expirations, meaning another impetus for volatility.
Setting Up for Santa Claus Rally?
While we did see indexes in the green Thursday, they are down across the board over the past week of trading. Concerns about AI infrastructure spending from present levels are apparent, as evident by the tech-heavy proving the laggard over the past month of trading. We’re off late October highs for the year, but have buoyed back from the pre-Thanksgiving lows (that was quite a month!).
As we know, a “Santa Claus Rally” does not occur throughout the holiday, but in the waning trading days of the calendar year. Often it is a way to correct for earlier-year trading discrepancies, and even more often it’s a means of looking forward into opportunities for the new year. In any case, with that equilibrium from market participants still being sought this morning, it appears the major indexes are currently in a sweet spot for a Santa Claus Rally to occur.
Earnings Roundup Ahead of the Open
Yesterday afternoon, we saw both Nike (NKE - Free Report) and FedEx (FDX - Free Report) outperform expectations on both top and bottom lines, but trade down in the early market today. Nike cited weakness in China and a “significant” tariff headwind, which helped take the stock down -10% from an already-low -13% drop year to date. FedEx, which also tightened guidance for its full year, is selling off -3% after gaining +24% over the past six months.
This morning, Winnebago (WGO - Free Report) posted a big surprise on both earnings and sales, with $0.38 per share amounting to a +216% positive earnings surprise on $702.7 million in revenues, +11.3% higher than the Zacks consensus. Shares have now flipped into positive territory for the year, +16% this morning versus -15% from early January til yesterday’s close. For more on WGO’s earnings, click here.
Meanwhile, french fry giant Lamb Weston (LW - Free Report) beat earnings estimates by 2 cents per share in its fiscal Q2 report this morning, but flat sales in North America and a murky picture due to its International acquisitions have brought shares -15% lower ahead of the bell. Conagra (CAG - Free Report) which beat by a penny to 45 cents per share this morning, is down marginally after shedding -35% year to date.
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